Coronavirus outbreak

[Warhippy]

19 minutes ago, coho8888 said:

Also the question must be asked "What is a lockdown"?  I don't think here in BC we were truly "locked down" .  We did not have curfews nor was the entire population mandated to stay home except for getting essentials.  We were encouraged to go out and get some fresh air and exercise but reduce long distance travel and gathering in crowds.  Covidiots like to throw this term around loosely.  "Oh we can't be locked down forever".  "People will go crazy and kill themselves leading to more deaths than Covid"  WE ARE NOT LOCKED DOWN.  I wish these idiots will get this through their thick heads.

 

Here's a photo from the criminal lockdown we're under from Penticton BC

 

It's totally unfair

[Warhippy]

23 minutes ago, coho8888 said:

"People will go crazy and kill themselves leading to more deaths than Covid"  WE ARE NOT LOCKED DOWN.  I wish these idiots will get this through their thick heads.

 

Not gonna lie.  I'm ready to blow from all this lockdown.

 

It's unbearable.  I mean, look what I'm stuck dealing with all say in 32° weather on the beach.  I'm married to this and I'm stuck indoors or on a beach with her all the time now

 

 

It's criminal honestly.  Just criminal.  We're on our way to a dictatorship with all this lockdown

[coho8888]

2 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Not gonna lie.  I'm ready to blow from all this lockdown.

 

It's unbearable.  I mean, look what I'm stuck dealing with all say in 32° weather on the beach.  I'm married to this and I'm stuck indoors or on a beach with her all the time now

 

 

It's criminal honestly.  Just criminal.  We're on our way to a dictatorship with all this lockdown

I feel for you man.  You may need some counselling after this is all over

 

[Me_]

5 hours ago, Sharpshooter said:

So you’d rather err on the side of death rather than caution? 
 

 

 

In the Now society we live in, with a 6 second attention span, and with not one governing entity in the world with a plan that’s more than six months into the future, is it any surprise to see a collective impatience toward a very sickened world in dire need our efforts to heal it?

 

The Earth has reminded us very fast that it can heal itself without us.

 

But we’re not listening.

 

Can we come together to insure that we are part of the equation going forward?

 

Rent’s been due for years.
We’re about to get evicted.

[CBH1926]

Party time!

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newspolitics/video-shows-large-street-party-on-vancouvers-granville-strip-amid-covid-19/ar-BB180jcZ?li=AAggNb9

[bishopshodan]

31 minutes ago, coho8888 said:

Also the question must be asked "What is a lockdown"?  I don't think here in BC we were truly "locked down" .  We did not have curfews nor was the entire population mandated to stay home except for getting essentials.  We were encouraged to go out and get some fresh air and exercise but reduce long distance travel and gathering in crowds.  Covidiots like to throw this term around loosely.  "Oh we can't be locked down forever".  "People will go crazy and kill themselves leading to more deaths than Covid"  WE ARE NOT LOCKED DOWN.  I wish these idiots will get this through their thick heads.

 

I agree with all that. People need to go out and enjoy the beautiful outdoors. 

 

That said, my sister is a clinical psychologist and has said to me that this is also a 'mental health pandemic' she has never seen anything like it. She is very busy and dealing with a lot of suicidal patients. 

[bishopshodan]

2 minutes ago, CBH1926 said:

Party time!

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/newspolitics/video-shows-large-street-party-on-vancouvers-granville-strip-amid-covid-19/ar-BB180jcZ?li=AAggNb9

Yeah, they have been closing that block off to traffic for about a decade now. I used to GM a club on that corner. 

 

Why they are letting nightclubs be open to populate these street parties once they empty out is a good question. 

[coho8888]

Just now, bishopshodan said:

I agree with all that. People need to go out and enjoy the beautiful outdoors. 

 

That said, my sister is a clinical psychologist and has said to me that this is also a 'mental health pandemic' she has never seen anything like it. She is very busy and dealing with a lot of suicidal patients. 

Its true that there are quite a few people having a tough time coping with this.  Something interesting that I heard while listening to the Lynda Steele show on Thursday was that one of the possible reasons for why these 20 somethings are partying it up and ignoring the rules is that because of Covid, they are in despair and see no hope for the future.  Many of them aren't going to school and are getting CERB funds from the govt.  This was coming from an interview with someone from that age group.  Not sure how much stock I put in this though.  There is just so much crap posted out there right now.  Some are in denial and cope by discounting the severity of this Virus and believe what they want to hear.  Some lose all hope and throw all caution to the wind.  Not sure what we can do about this.  

[bishopshodan]

1 hour ago, coho8888 said:

Its true that there are quite a few people having a tough time coping with this.  Something interesting that I heard while listening to the Lynda Steele show on Thursday was that one of the possible reasons for why these 20 somethings are partying it up and ignoring the rules is that because of Covid, they are in despair and see no hope for the future.  Many of them aren't going to school and are getting CERB funds from the govt.  This was coming from an interview with someone from that age group.  Not sure how much stock I put in this though.  There is just so much crap posted out there right now.  Some are in denial and cope by discounting the severity of this Virus and believe what they want to hear.  Some lose all hope and throw all caution to the wind.  Not sure what we can do about this.  

Agreed.

I feel for people but I am surprised how hard it has hit some mentally. Then again, I'm not the family member with the PHD.

 

This pandemic is not fair. It's not easy, that's the whole gig with a deadly global disease. It's awful and we need to support each other while still asking people to have a stiff upper lip. Getting outdoors, walking in the woods can do a world of help. It's prescribed in Japan, its called shinrin-yoku, or forest bathing. 

 

Edited August 16, 2020 by bishopshodan

[footsy]

5 hours ago, gurn said:

Sweden's population 10.10 million

deaths from covid 5,783

equals 1 in 1746.49

 

so far.

 

At least get your math right.

You definitely scored a big win there. 1 in 1700 it is. Spanish flu was only 50 times worse.

[Gurn]

7 minutes ago, footsy said:

You definitely scored a big win there. 1 in 1700 it is. Spanish flu was only 50 times worse.

I don't care about your perception of a "win". I'd just like to see proper numbers used to make an argument/point, even if the point is wrong. Covid is not over yet.

When this began the Canadian government said between 30-70 percent of people will get covid.

go with half of a population, take the WHO estimate on March 3/20 of 3.4% mortality and do the math from there.

Also remember death, or complete recovery, are not the only outcomes from having this virus.

[footsy]

8 minutes ago, gurn said:

I don't care about your perception of a "win". I'd just like to see proper numbers used to make an argument/point, even if the point is wrong. Covid is not over yet.

When this began the Canadian government said between 30-70 percent of people will get covid.

go with half of a population, take the WHO estimate on March 3/20 of 3.4% mortality and do the math from there.

Also remember death, or complete recovery, are not the only outcomes from having this virus.

Do you agree with the CDC chief who says the best estimate for actual cases is 10 times higher than the official count? Would that make the mortality rate .34%?

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/25/cdc-coronavirus-infections-higher-than-confirmed-339963

[Cerridwen]

8 hours ago, Gawdzukes said:

@Cerridwin why be confused if you haven't bothered to put forth the time to understand what we're talking about?

Not confused at all....that's my emoticon for incredulity at a post. I've been here since the very beginning of the thread... you've idea what I've done with my time. Generalizations just make you look foolish. Sometimes a post just stretches the limits of believability and earns itself that particular face because this one ... and this one ....... aren't available.

[kloubek]

5 hours ago, footsy said:

Do you agree with the CDC chief who says the best estimate for actual cases is 10 times higher than the official count? Would that make the mortality rate .34%?

Who knows how many are walking around without knowing they are infected. I bet there are a ton in the US especially. And that is one of the primary reasons people still are transmitting the virus imo. Groups of people who likely believe they are healthy in close contact with each other. Knowing that there are indeed an unmeasureable amount of people out there who are asymptomatic, I do believe the mortality rate is lower than 3.5%. 10 times seems like a stretch but who knows... maybe in places where they are overwhelmed and undertested.

 

Regardless, as implied, there are already reports of expected long term health issues for some survivors, so the risks after survival will likely exist. And even if you half the mortality rate to 1.25%, that's still a really high rate if it is allowed to run rampant. 

 

And that's the key. Yes this virus is deadly, but it's not THAT deadly. As long as it can be kept to low numbers, it is not a ton of people. Still sucks they die (RIP) but there is only so much we can do.

 

But infection is exponential. This virus has proven to be extremely contagous. It doesn't take long for numbers to climb. The fact they haven't exploded since reopening is a testament to measures working in conjunction with warmer weather I imagine, but we gotta keep it up. If we actually hit a 50% infection rate that would be half a million dead or so at full mortality rate? No thanks.

 

Here in Alberta, I believe we have the worst of the worst anti-protocol, anti-government advocates. I think it is a relatively small portion of the population here but they are very vocal online with a wide audience, and they put a lot of doubt in people as to potential severity of Covid. I have a hunch our numbers being higher than BC are a large result of that kind of thinking. You can see how just a few cracks in social distancing, etc can make a difference.

 

But numbers are still pretty good right? Yup... not bad. Even here is sorta ok. And Ontario has that s**t nailed out there too. (Good job).

 

But in September, kids will be bringing it into the schools. Classmates will bring it back to their families. Anyone with kids know what sloppy messes they are and I cannot fathom schools being able to do a good enough job protecting them. We have already seen what happened in that Georgia school and those were unslobbery (hopefully) high school students.

 

And if that isn't enough, shortly after that we start flu season. Like most viruses, Covid has shown to thrive in cold and struggle in heat due to its shell. If we enter this timeframe already even moderately infected, that exponential infection rate already has a head start. Do not be fooled by our low numbers. This is the time for us to keep them even lower in preparation for what is to come.

 

So... about that Russian vaccine....

[Gawdzukes]

7 hours ago, Cerridwen said:

Not confused at all....that's my emoticon for incredulity at a post. I've been here since the very beginning of the thread... you've idea what I've done with my time. Generalizations just make you look foolish. Sometimes a post just stretches the limits of believability and earns itself that particular face because this one ... and this one ....... aren't available.

Okay, thanks for the contribution.  My point still stands despite this useless derailment. People sometimes. 

[footsy]

7 hours ago, kloubek said:

Who knows how many are walking around without knowing they are infected. I bet there are a ton in the US especially. And that is one of the primary reasons people still are transmitting the virus imo. Groups of people who likely believe they are healthy in close contact with each other. Knowing that there are indeed an unmeasureable amount of people out there who are asymptomatic, I do believe the mortality rate is lower than 3.5%. 10 times seems like a stretch but who knows... maybe in places where they are overwhelmed and undertested.

 

Regardless, as implied, there are already reports of expected long term health issues for some survivors, so the risks after survival will likely exist. And even if you half the mortality rate to 1.25%, that's still a really high rate if it is allowed to run rampant. 

 

And that's the key. Yes this virus is deadly, but it's not THAT deadly. As long as it can be kept to low numbers, it is not a ton of people. Still sucks they die (RIP) but there is only so much we can do.

 

But infection is exponential. This virus has proven to be extremely contagous. It doesn't take long for numbers to climb. The fact they haven't exploded since reopening is a testament to measures working in conjunction with warmer weather I imagine, but we gotta keep it up. If we actually hit a 50% infection rate that would be half a million dead or so at full mortality rate? No thanks.

 

Here in Alberta, I believe we have the worst of the worst anti-protocol, anti-government advocates. I think it is a relatively small portion of the population here but they are very vocal online with a wide audience, and they put a lot of doubt in people as to potential severity of Covid. I have a hunch our numbers being higher than BC are a large result of that kind of thinking. You can see how just a few cracks in social distancing, etc can make a difference.

 

But numbers are still pretty good right? Yup... not bad. Even here is sorta ok. And Ontario has that s**t nailed out there too. (Good job).

 

But in September, kids will be bringing it into the schools. Classmates will bring it back to their families. Anyone with kids know what sloppy messes they are and I cannot fathom schools being able to do a good enough job protecting them. We have already seen what happened in that Georgia school and those were unslobbery (hopefully) high school students.

 

And if that isn't enough, shortly after that we start flu season. Like most viruses, Covid has shown to thrive in cold and struggle in heat due to its shell. If we enter this timeframe already even moderately infected, that exponential infection rate already has a head start. Do not be fooled by our low numbers. This is the time for us to keep them even lower in preparation for what is to come.

 

So... about that Russian vaccine....

You give a rational summation of expectations with the info coming from the podium. Real life results show Canada may expect 22,000 total deaths with reopening, including kids going back to school.  We have similar demographics to Sweden so it's one way to make a reasonable projection.  

 

One reason why the real life deaths are so low may be because of T cell immunity (theory?). Up to 70% of the population may have this (genetic?) immunity, so that would explain why the virus numbers crash with only 10 or 20 percent of the population having antibodies. Hopefully this is fact.

 

Kids have already been to school in Sweden. Going back in fall and the colder weather will be the final test to see if their approach was the way to go.

 

 

[kingofsurrey]

34 minutes ago, footsy said:

You give a rational summation of expectations with the info coming from the podium. Real life results show Canada may expect 22,000 total deaths with reopening, including kids going back to school.  We have similar demographics to Sweden so it's one way to make a reasonable projection.  

 

One reason why the real life deaths are so low may be because of T cell immunity (theory?). Up to 70% of the population may have this (genetic?) immunity, so that would explain why the virus numbers crash with only 10 or 20 percent of the population having antibodies. Hopefully this is fact.

 

Kids have already been to school in Sweden. Going back in fall and the colder weather will be the final test to see if their approach was the way to go.

 

 

Swedens death rate was 11 times higher than its neighbour Norway....    Wow that was quite an accomplishment.

 

By all accounts, Sweden's high rate of coronavirus deaths was evidence that the country had made a horrendous error. Sweden — which did not impose a strict lockdown — suffered 543 deaths per million of its population, compared to just 105 in neighboring Denmark. The Swedish death toll has been roughly 11 times worse than Norway's, on a per capita basis.

 

 

As for why there's been a recent drop: "The short answer is, that there is no short answer," Pekka Nuorti, an epidemiologist in Finland's Tampere University, told Business Insider, pointing to changes in testing, changes in behaviors, and more time spent outside.

 

But Nuorti warned against taking much comfort from this chart alone.

"In general, looking only at total reported case counts can be misleading and they have a tendency to fluctuate," he said.

Sweden is now preparing for a second wave, like other countries — a situation it had hoped to avoid. Health Minister Lena Hallengren warned this week "the danger is not over," and announced Sweden is planning in case the virus starts to peak again.

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-coronavirus-cases-deaths-fall-not-mean-lockdown-plan-worked-2020-7

[-DLC-]

My daughter was just tested....has been having all kinds of issues recently.  They thought it was heart related but it's been a bit mysterious.  Chest pains, trouble breathing, numbness/tingling, high heart rate.  All tests have ruled out heart defect.

 

Was supposed to take 24 hours for the results...took 42.  Held my breathe the whole time.

 

NEGATIVE!  Exhale.....

[Ghostsof1915]

15 hours ago, footsy said:

You definitely scored a big win there. 1 in 1700 it is. Spanish flu was only 50 times worse.

But to put into perspective.

2019-20 is relative peacetime. WWI just ended on November, 11, 1918. The Spanish Flu had been weaving it's way through troops during 1918. 

Then everyone gets on ships and goes home. Thus spreading the virus. 

The second wave was deadlier, and the timing couldn't have been worse. 

[higgyfan]

3 hours ago, footsy said:

You give a rational summation of expectations with the info coming from the podium. Real life results show Canada may expect 22,000 total deaths with reopening, including kids going back to school.  We have similar demographics to Sweden so it's one way to make a reasonable projection.  

Sweden's population is more comparable to Ontario, which has half the # of cases and 3000 fewer deaths.  Canada's death rate is higher due to the horrible situation in Quebec's care homes.

 

Quote

 

One reason why the real life deaths are so low may be because of T cell immunity (theory?). Up to 70% of the population may have this (genetic?) immunity, so that would explain why the virus numbers crash with only 10 or 20 percent of the population having antibodies. Hopefully this is fact.

I haven't heard anything about genetic immunity.  Right now it sounds like speculation. 

 

I think the reason the death rate is lower than the previous pandemic in 1918 is:

 

1. The general health and the modern healthcare systems are far superior nowadays.  Imagine what the death rate would be like without ventilators. There was poor access to face masks, hand sanitizers and even soap and hot water.

 

2. WW2 was in full swing.  The soldiers in the trenches were facing horrible living conditions; their declining health made them vulnerable to the flu.  More soldiers died from the flu than actual battles.  The movement of soldiers and return to their homelands spread the infection.

 

3. The Spanish Flu lasted for 2 years and had 3 waves.  The first wave was considered mild, but the (mutated) 2nd wave was devastating.  Covid 19 has only been in full force for several months.  Experts are warning us of a second wave in the fall.  They are saying that it will likely be far worse.  We know very little about the new Coronavirus, so anything is possible.  At the very least, it should be taken seriously and everyone needs to be following the protocols.

 

Quote

Kids have already been to school in Sweden. Going back in fall and the colder weather will be the final test to see if their approach was the way to go.

Seeing as the virus is more infectious indoors, due to poor air circulation and close quarters, I don't see colder weather as a plus.  Covidiots will just move their parties indoors. Same goes for the restaurants and bars.

 

Quote

 

 

 

Edited August 16, 2020 by higgyfan