Jim the Scout, not the Asset Manager

[Timråfan]

1 hour ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I don't think Jim will be leaving hockey for a job in International diplomacy, but to call him dishonest is ridiculous. If anything he's too open with his comments. 

That's exactly what Trumps fans say about him. 

I say both try to blame others and that is dishonest in my view. 

[Timråfan]

1 hour ago, DeNiro said:

He’s a very good scout that has reshaped our roster through the draft yes.

 

Right now that is very valuable to us.

 

Once we have all the core pieces in place it will be up to a GM like a Stan Bowman with championship experience to take the roster to the next level.

 

Damnit, both you and Heffy managed to give a decent answer.

The world is turning... 

[RWMc1]

I'm tired of reading the Toffoli crap. We were pre- Covid when the deal was made. Daly announced that the cap was going up by 3-6 million depending on the NHLPA and the escrow percentage. Not only did Covid take away revenue and freeze the cap, but it dropped the bottom out of the worth of certain players. These were the players we were going to deal. Their Playoff performances would have made them attractive to other teams in any other season. So now, not only has their value dropped (because of the Covid effect) but other teams don't have the cap room to acquire players.

 

Now only the top teams are making deals for a Playoff push. With the cap freeze, we have to be more creative with the salaries and with which players to keep. eg. Pearson plays an important role and Gaudette didn't. The reality is that the players that people want to jettison due to popularity are not in demand and other teams can pick and choose the best options. We will have to let deals expire and we will have a good window opening in two years when all the bad contracts are gone.

 

I love our guys, but we are still a few steps away. Benning is already replacing the bottom with less expensive options. Our bottom 6 is going to look a lot different over the next few seasons. Benning is not doing exactly the same as he always does except making a deal if he thinks it will make the team better over the long term.

 

Edited April 17, 2021 by RWMc1

[VegasCanuck]

4 hours ago, Top Sven Baercheese said:

An article by Andrew Harris from CanuckArmy. I couldn't help but agree 100% with what he has said. I long believed in Benning and was hoping he learned from his mistakes, but the lack of selling (yet again) at the deadline tells us differently. I didn't realize that we haven't acquired a top 90 pick for 5 years (amazing as Benning is known for his draft prowess), but we've traded a lot of these picks (amazing again, as we haven't been a playoff team). 
 

https://canucksarmy.com/2021/04/17/jim-scout-jim-asset-manager-canucks-price/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2xl5kYij6P2myKhe_lHylJHfzdIcQm8tgS0KL56OQhYRMw1pNOFuT05Co

 

 

From the onset, an NHL general manager is given a set of resources to work with that includes some combination of cap space, draft picks, and inherited prospects and roster players. A GM’s goal is to maximize the value of those assets within the constraints set forth by the CBA. From a high level, we call this “asset management”.

 

We’re going to modify a Warren Buffett quote here. The problem is that NHL GMs tend to come from backgrounds of scouting, playing, coaching, or sometimes, institutional politics. Once at the top, GMs from these backgrounds find themselves ill-equipped to handle their new asset managing responsibilities. A skill set like scouting, which equips a GM to say “player x is better than player y” isn’t as useful in the new asset management job. GMs are often left with holes in their understanding of foundational concepts such as scarcity, opportunity cost, and behavioural economics.

 

We’ve seen this play out time and time again with the Canucks’ front office. Jim the scout says “Tyler Myers has all the attributes we’re looking for. He’s big, strong, and can add an offensive component to our defence. We should sign him.” There is no Jim the asset manager that says, “Hang on, what’s the cost of acquiring Myers? Is this the best use of our cap space relative to alternatives? Why are we willing to acquire him at a price that’s chased all of the other bidders from the table?”

A mistake like Tyler Myers is plain and laid bare for us to see, but Jim Benning’s errors of omission (things he didn’t do) are almost invisible. We can’t see the forgone draft picks, the roster players retained, or the prospects not acquired that have likely been an overhang through his regime. These costs are very real, and form the bedrock of the key concept missing from Benning’s mental toolkit: opportunity cost. It’s economics 101 — an opportunity cost is an opportunity lost.

 

For example, the cost of signing Tanner Pearson was not only $3.25 million in cap space, but also the second-round pick Pearson could have fetched at the deadline. Jim the scout sees a leader with a host of offensive tools (we’ll ignore that Pearson is near replacement-level), while Jim the asset manager sees a skating second-round pick. It’s worse when thought of this way: Benning was a de facto deadline buyer by forgoing the draft pick he could have acquired for Pearson.

This is the problem with Jim Benning. He chases players his intuition deems “good” (intuition that is deserving of significant skepticism — see Sham Sharron or Jay Beagle) without giving pause to ask how it fits the bigger picture. Of course, there’s always a price to pay, and when Benning has to think about that price, he does one of two things 1) he just bids higher than the market or 2) he relies heavily on his own intuitive definition of a “fair price”.

 

A key responsibility of an asset manager is to consider how asset values diminish over time, something amateur scouting departments don’t have to do. In an appearance on Sportsnet 650, Benning said that contending teams tend to have players primarily between the ages of 24-34 (a hilarious answer – as Sam from the Broadscast pointed out on Twitter, the majority of all NHL players are between 24-34). Benning was going the intuition route, and nobody’s (except Petbugs’) intuition can possibly be developed to incorporate the ageing trends of the thousands of players in the NHL. A model is clearly better here, and what does the model say?

 

The result of this disjointed process is arguably the least efficient team of the salary cap era. It’s a team that’s lost asset value in Tanner Pearson, Dan Hamhuis, Troy Stecher, Chris Tanev, Ryan Miller, Shawn Matthias, and Frank Corrado. It’s a team that’s avoided alternative uses of cap space, and hasn’t traded for a draft pick in the top 90 since 2016.

That’s the problem with Jim Benning’s tenure as Canucks GM. We’ve got Jim the scout, not Jim the asset manager, and he doesn’t know about opportunity cost.

 

 

So, again, articles by people who have zero knowledge of what actually happens in running and managing a team in the NHL, and wouldn't get hired as anything more than team janitor.

 

Fans need to stop listening to click bait and assuming it's Gospel.

 

JB is not perfect, but neither is any of the other GM's in the NHL. They all have strengths and weaknesses and there will never be anyone who doesn't make the occasional mistake and its not realistic, as fans, to expect that.

 

The guys writing these articles, would get laughed out of an interview with any ownership group in the NHL 

[CanuckleHorse]

1 hour ago, DeNiro said:

Look what Bergevin was able to do in one summer.

 

Made some very good moves with very little.

 

He had some good pieces just needed a few players here n there with the C19 he got lucky on some very low contracts. I’m not gonna say it was all luck but some of it was.

[204CanucksFan]

50 minutes ago, Silky mitts said:

Well its true. He has been terrible in asset management . 

 

Here is a good laugh for all you folks

 

Toffoli 21 goals 4.5 hit

 

Beagle, LE, pearson, myers, roussel, sutter, jake, 22 goals 28.6 million hit 

 

 

We will not go anywhere with this idiot as GM. 

Yup. And nearly 37 million coming off the books over this off season and next. Right when guys like Lind, Gadj, Jasek, Woo, Podkolzin, Rathbone and even Höglander are ready to step in to support (or better) roles after being given time to properly develop and not thrown in to the fire with no support.

 

Also when guys like Bo, Boeser, Petterson, Hughes and Demko are more developed and used to the highest competition and are ready to really lead a team.

 

Almost like there was actually some kind of plan...

 

Even if you don't like it.

[xereau]

Jim's waiting for the core to hit their mid 20's. Everything before that even happens is pretty much meaningless.

[Attila Umbrus]

4 hours ago, rychicken said:

Awesome, another JB thread....

Ahhh yes, but this is covering a previously uncovered angle. It MUST have its own thread! Next new thread, Benning, does he wear a toupee like Trump, and is it possibly restricting his blood flow? Click on his trash canucksarmy link where we give you all the reasons to hate this administration even more than you already do...

[King Heffy]

1 hour ago, 204CanucksFan said:

Yup. And nearly 37 million coming off the books over this off season and next. Right when guys like Lind, Gadj, Jasek, Woo, Podkolzin, Rathbone and even Höglander are ready to step in to support (or better) roles after being given time to properly develop and not thrown in to the fire with no support.

 

Also when guys like Bo, Boeser, Petterson, Hughes and Demko are more developed and used to the highest competition and are ready to really lead a team.

 

Almost like there was actually some kind of plan...

 

Even if you don't like it.

That was the original plan.  Petey, Hughes, and Brock screwed that plan up by developing too well.

[ilduce39]

2 hours ago, RWMc1 said:

I'm tired of reading the Toffoli crap. We were pre- Covid when the deal was made. Daly announced that the cap was going up by 3-6 million depending on the NHLPA and the escrow percentage. Not only did Covid take away revenue and freeze the cap, but it dropped the bottom out of the worth of certain players. These were the players we were going to deal. Their Playoff performances would have made them attractive to other teams in any other season. So now, not only has their value dropped (because of the Covid effect) but other teams don't have the cap room to acquire players.

 

Now only the top teams are making deals for a Playoff push. With the cap freeze, we have to be more creative with the salaries and with which players to keep. eg. Pearson plays an important role and Gaudette didn't. The reality is that the players that people want to jettison due to popularity are not in demand and other teams can pick and choose the best options. We will have to let deals expire and we will have a good window opening in two years when all the bad contracts are gone.

 

I love our guys, but we are still a few steps away. Benning is already replacing the bottom with less expensive options. Our bottom 6 is going to look a lot different over the next few seasons. Benning is not doing exactly the same as he always does except making a deal if he thinks it will make the team better over the long term.

 

Re: Toffoli I was going to say the same thing... if you’re actually talking “asset management” his acquisition needed to be weighted against what we gave up vs his play with the team and a strong assuming he would have been able to be retained under normal circumstances. 

 

It was actually a decent move and the outcome is a healthy dose of bad luck.  I think he’s still with us over Tanev and Marky if the cap goes up the way it should have. 

[xereau]

2 hours ago, RWMc1 said:

I'm tired of reading the Toffoli crap. We were pre- Covid when the deal was made. Daly announced that the cap was going up by 3-6 million depending on the NHLPA and the escrow percentage. Not only did Covid take away revenue and freeze the cap, but it dropped the bottom out of the worth of certain players. These were the players we were going to deal. Their Playoff performances would have made them attractive to other teams in any other season. So now, not only has their value dropped (because of the Covid effect) but other teams don't have the cap room to acquire players.

 

Now only the top teams are making deals for a Playoff push. With the cap freeze, we have to be more creative with the salaries and with which players to keep. eg. Pearson plays an important role and Gaudette didn't. The reality is that the players that people want to jettison due to popularity are not in demand and other teams can pick and choose the best options. We will have to let deals expire and we will have a good window opening in two years when all the bad contracts are gone.

 

I love our guys, but we are still a few steps away. Benning is already replacing the bottom with less expensive options. Our bottom 6 is going to look a lot different over the next few seasons. Benning is not doing exactly the same as he always does except making a deal if he thinks it will make the team better over the long term.

 

 

  

Yeah, Montreal wasn't always on his mind, or anything.

 

 

All the "ran out of time" nonsense is bs. That's how plain old Jim respectfully ended the question, one time, and somehow it's defined the entire (non) signing.

 

If TT wanted to be here, he would be here right now, it would have happened. Period, the end of conversation. Anything else is just dramatic nonsense!

 

TT said he wanted to be here, because it was the polite thing to say. They ALL say this when they move on, it just a cliché at this point in time. Benning said time ran out because it was the polite way of not throwing TT under the bus. He even hurt himself by saying it.

 

Edited April 18, 2021 by xereau

[xereau]

.

Edited April 18, 2021 by xereau
.

[Chris12345]

6 hours ago, DeNiro said:

The thing is Bennings drafts are producing talent at a level this organization has not seen too often.

 

So as much as fans complain about his managing of the roster, we badly need the talent that he’s able to find in the draft.

 

The Aquilinis see this and will give him more time to find talent before a new GM comes in and takes the team to the next level.

I dunno man I mean you are correct he's had some really awesome pics but the Canucks have absolutely sucked since 2012?

 

I would have realistically done alright.

[hammertime]

Why have a Canucks fan blog if every article you write for the last decade is just $#!TT!NG on the team. 

[Ghostsof1915]

Hockey players are not real estate, stocks, comic books, coins, or stamps. 

Nor are they cattle. 

Things happen. You can do the best you can. Make the best moves you can. 

Some things work. Some things don't. 

No GM has a perfect track record to my knowledge. 

You can complain about the time table. The results. The moves. 

Go play NHL 21 if you want to be a GM. But that is also a simulation, not real GM's. 

As DeNiro points out. Rarely have we seen a GM draft so well. If your farm team is well stocked. That can make up for other mistakes. 

 

Some teams constantly make high draft picks and make lots of questionable moves. 

Considering Vancouver has yet to draft a first overall pick, or a "generational" talent. 

Eriksson looked good at the time but was a mistake, especially with that length of contract. 

I wasn't privy to what went on last season. Maybe Benning focused too much on getting a defensemen, and should have made moves to free up cap space to sign

Toffoli. It happens. Maybe if anything Benning needs a better Assistant GM (cough..cough dump Weisbrod).

 

Bottom line, even when Gillis got a sweetheart deal of getting Ehrhoff (due to San Jose in a cap crunch). He lost him for nothing in free agency. I didn't hear anyone calling for Gillis's head for not giving Ehrhoff what he wanted.

 

[J.I.A.H.N]

I have to agree with the author

 

To me, what the author is saying is that Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin, Jacob, Markstrom, Chris Tanev, and Tyler Toffoli should have brought us something in important asset recovery. Now, I know Toffoli came in as part of our last playoff race, but his cost ( Madden, 2020 2nd, and a 4th?) is the equivalent, and part of the point.

 

If you look, at these players, they are all, stars and all would have brought some form of Toffoli equivalent. All for the sake of a playoff march, or even earlier, when no such thing was in sight.

 

Put into the argument Eriksson, who was brought in when everyone of us knew, we were declining and there is alot of room for questioning Benning's decisions in this regard. 

 

Add to that Pearson, for what the author thinks would have been a 2nd rounder, and you can easily see, we are certainly short more than a few potential assets.

 

Now, bringing in Miller (a 1st) and Myers, help bring us 1 trip to the playoffs, BUT, and that is a big BUT! The little experience we gained from a playoff appearance, has been lost, when we let them all walk away...............something, again we knew was going to happen, regardless of the Flat Cap cause by Covid. We knew Markstrom would ask in the area of 6 million, and without covid, Tanev would have been asking for more, same for Toffoli, so we absolutely knew, we were loosing high end players.

 

Basically, we knew, we were not making the playoffs, a second year in a row, something underlined by Benning's comments about taking a step back, because we could not keep everybody.

 

So...........sure, we may have kept the Sedin's......Ok, I get that.......I don't agree, but I get it, but why give Edler a NTC? Why handcuff yourself, except, to be able to make the excuse. 

 

Benning has thrown away, multiple assets for nothing.............excluding the Sedin's and but including Miller, Edler, Marrkstrom, Pearson, Tanev and Toffoli, we have give up, a sum equal to approx. 1st, 5-2nds, Madden and a 4th..............sure there is argument they would not have all come through, but if 1/2 had, plus the extra cap we would have had, we have lost too much. which has been my point all along.

 

Now, we are looking at Myers, Pearson, Miller and Schmidt, all equal to 2nd round picks or more, and a second opportunity to move them, what will happen in the future? This again is what the author is getting at.

 

The loss of multiple assets (Picks/ELC's/UFA's) will this continue to be the norm?

[JM_]

3 hours ago, Timråfan said:

That's exactly what Trumps fans say about him. 

I say both try to blame others and that is dishonest in my view. 

I can't think of anything he's done that sounds like this. 

[J.I.A.H.N]

3 hours ago, RWMc1 said:

I'm tired of reading the Toffoli crap. We were pre- Covid when the deal was made. Daly announced that the cap was going up by 3-6 million depending on the NHLPA and the escrow percentage. Not only did Covid take away revenue and freeze the cap, but it dropped the bottom out of the worth of certain players. These were the players we were going to deal. Their Playoff performances would have made them attractive to other teams in any other season. So now, not only has their value dropped (because of the Covid effect) but other teams don't have the cap room to acquire players.

 

Now only the top teams are making deals for a Playoff push. With the cap freeze, we have to be more creative with the salaries and with which players to keep. eg. Pearson plays an important role and Gaudette didn't. The reality is that the players that people want to jettison due to popularity are not in demand and other teams can pick and choose the best options. We will have to let deals expire and we will have a good window opening in two years when all the bad contracts are gone.

 

I love our guys, but we are still a few steps away. Benning is already replacing the bottom with less expensive options. Our bottom 6 is going to look a lot different over the next few seasons. Benning is not doing exactly the same as he always does except making a deal if he thinks it will make the team better over the long term.

 

Tons of picks moved around this year.........

5 - 1st, 3 - 2nds, countless, 3rds, 4ths, 5ths, 6ths and even a 7th

Covid, did not really change too much at the TDL

[J.I.A.H.N]

1 minute ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I can't think of anything he's done that sounds like this. 

I think Jim is too honest, alot of times. 

[aGENT]

4 hours ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

Yet, his aversion to acquiring draft capital.  Bizarre. 
 

Picking at the top of each round is probably statistically verifiable to “produce talent”, which is where his cap teams have finished.  
 

I think it’s critical to remember why he was picking high, not what he did once he fell there.  
 

 

Calling @IBatch, someone claiming it's all simply picking early round picks again