How long until we are competing with Vegas & Colorado?

[ronthecivil]

3 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

This is quite a sad way to look at it but I think it's true. The Hronek deal really seals it for us - I know why PA did it and it makes our team maybe better now, but getting rid of two very high picks (arguably a top-10 and late 1st in any other draft) is the reason we're in this mess - a quick-fire way to fix the team in the short-term but hurts us in the long-term.

 

The reason Yzerman did the trade is that it makes them better in the future and you can see that's what a clever savvy GM is building towards. He's looking at the slow-burner way to build a chronically successful team, we're trying to patch up our current core to go for it now but it's not a consistent way to build a winner.

 

Sometimes doing less is more and I wonder, if we'd never made the OEL or Hronek deal how this team would have looked, let alone the Dickinson swaps where we lost picks too. A lot less cap hits, a lot more draft picks. I know we had positional needs but most teams just sit on their team, maybe fill them with free agents here and there, and use those picks wisely to build a team from within with quality and quantity.

Exactly. Why not try to always be getting better? The times you should go all in are few and far between. Like if you win the presidents trophy, or are in contention for it at the deadline then sure, go all in, and very all in, and sacrifice the next couple years of picks (which will be low anyways) and don't worry about the future because you clearly have a good team at that moment.

 

But the rest of the time, money puck. Always be improving.

 

But that's not what's happening, as you mention, sadly.

[Boudrias]

4 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

This is quite a sad way to look at it but I think it's true. The Hronek deal really seals it for us - I know why PA did it and it makes our team maybe better now, but getting rid of two very high picks (arguably a top-10 and late 1st in any other draft) is the reason we're in this mess - a quick-fire way to fix the team in the short-term but hurts us in the long-term.

 

The reason Yzerman did the trade is that it makes them better in the future and you can see that's what a clever savvy GM is building towards. He's looking at the slow-burner way to build a chronically successful team, we're trying to patch up our current core to go for it now but it's not a consistent way to build a winner.

 

Sometimes doing less is more and I wonder, if we'd never made the OEL or Hronek deal how this team would have looked, let alone the Dickinson swaps where we lost picks too. A lot less cap hits, a lot more draft picks. I know we had positional needs but most teams just sit on their team, maybe fill them with free agents here and there, and use those picks wisely to build a team from within with quality and quantity.

Your take is pretty accurate IMHO. Most Canuck fans are worried about resigning Petey this summer which is fair enough but the biggest issue remains roster depth and overall quality. Ultimately Petey and Hughes could become building blocks whether they stay or are moved. IMO the Canucks have required a major rebuild for 10 years and have never done so. Fans, media and ownership are so fixated on winning now that building a actual contender is sacrificed. 

 

Yzerman built T Bay and he is doing the same in Detroit. I am sure there are many fans there who are unhappy with how long it is taking. Moving Hronek and Bertuzzi were smart long term moves. The Wings have a core now and are moving past where Vancouver is. 

 

How long? With incredible luck, player development, and solid GM'ing the Canucks are 3 years away from serious contention. More likely it will be 5 years.  

[DrJockitch]

16 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Your take is pretty accurate IMHO. Most Canuck fans are worried about resigning Petey this summer which is fair enough but the biggest issue remains roster depth and overall quality. Ultimately Petey and Hughes could become building blocks whether they stay or are moved. IMO the Canucks have required a major rebuild for 10 years and have never done so. Fans, media and ownership are so fixated on winning now that building a actual contender is sacrificed. 

 

Yzerman built T Bay and he is doing the same in Detroit. I am sure there are many fans there who are unhappy with how long it is taking. Moving Hronek and Bertuzzi were smart long term moves. The Wings have a core now and are moving past where Vancouver is. 

 

How long? With incredible luck, player development, and solid GM'ing the Canucks are 3 years away from serious contention. More likely it will be 5 years.  

In 5 years we will be looking to move future assets to move on from 35 year old JTM after we just squandered his prime. 
I agree we are walking down the wrong path and we will likely squander the careers of EP and QH if we keep doing the same thing but as Seattles has shown you can go from middling to playoff contender fairly quickly. Problem is unless we get a godly run from Demko that is what it looks like all we are building too. 
Hard to subtract 8 years of Benning’s mess in a season and a half but their direction is clear; competitive now, never mind the future. The owner wants a run for very elderly father so the constant pressure is there to do everything as quick as possible. 

[DownUndaCanuck]

1 hour ago, ronthecivil said:

Exactly. Why not try to always be getting better? The times you should go all in are few and far between. Like if you win the presidents trophy, or are in contention for it at the deadline then sure, go all in, and very all in, and sacrifice the next couple years of picks (which will be low anyways) and don't worry about the future because you clearly have a good team at that moment.

 

But the rest of the time, money puck. Always be improving.

 

But that's not what's happening, as you mention, sadly.

It's interesting to see more bad teams act as buyers now. CBJ were almost dead last and they're making a play for the playoffs. Maybe after teams like STL and Florida have shown that anyone who gets in can have playoff success, it gives a lot of teams false hope to try and gun for a playoff spot, even if it's just for a couple of years, rather than sustained success.

 

Inpatient teams rarely win cups but just watch a team like NJD, Buffalo and soon Detroit gear up for consistent success. They had a bit of success this year but none of them are selling the farm or picks to gun for it in the short term, if anything they're biding their time and slowly growing and getting better. NJD are about to lose two of their top 4 defencemen in one off-season, they just "sold" Severson for a 3rd and just watch that team be even better next year with Hughes and Nemec. That's how you have sustained success. Same goes for Detroit - they just sold their top RD for two top picks so instantly double their team value and they've got Edvinsson and Wallinder to replace him, and they'll just continue that cycle until they're really ready.

 

I wish we had constructed the team that way - patient build up from within, instead of all of these rash moves trading firsts and seconds away.

[iceman64]

Watch... We win four in a row to start the season and everyone will be planning the parade.. lose 4 and tear it down, trade everyone..  same thing different year... 

[Ghostsof1915]

3 minutes ago, iceman64 said:

Watch... We win four in a row to start the season and everyone will be planning the parade.. lose 4 and tear it down, trade everyone..  same thing different year... 

 

[Dr. Crossbar]

A lot sooner than the wet blankets say.

[Baggins]

On 6/8/2023 at 9:38 PM, Nucks89 said:

How long do you think it will take until we are competing with Colorado and Vegas for supremecy in the west?

 

We still have an elite goalie, Centre, and D. Depth isn't greatest. But it can be worked on. 

 

Vegas has decisions to make in net. Avs are in a cap crunch and injuries are taking a toll.

[cripplereh]

Right after Myers,BB are gone and our youth starts coming up to keep us with cap space.

 

I say starts next year and in two maybe three weeks will be in playoffs for a long time.

[cripplereh]

On 6/9/2023 at 5:54 AM, Alflives said:

We will be better than all teams next season that don’t get to our 105 points. 
Demko, Hughes, Hronek, Petey, Miller. That’s an elite core. 

Add Hirose, Johansson on D not as core players but better then what we have had and there will be a good 4 defense.

 

D Pettersson in another year and we look really good.

[ilduce39]

10 hours ago, Dr. Crossbar said:

A lot sooner than the wet blankets say.

For Vegas at least they aren’t getting any younger as well.
 

They’ll still be out of our league next year - but after that I think it’s a lot less certain.

[24K PureCool]

15 hours ago, DrJockitch said:

In 5 years we will be looking to move future assets to move on from 35 year old JTM after we just squandered his prime. 
I agree we are walking down the wrong path and we will likely squander the careers of EP and QH if we keep doing the same thing but as Seattles has shown you can go from middling to playoff contender fairly quickly. Problem is unless we get a godly run from Demko that is what it looks like all we are building too. 
Hard to subtract 8 years of Benning’s mess in a season and a half but their direction is clear; competitive now, never mind the future. The owner wants a run for very elderly father so the constant pressure is there to do everything as quick as possible. 

Great we have another decade or so to suffer through. 

[Guest]

20 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

This is quite a sad way to look at it but I think it's true. The Hronek deal really seals it for us - I know why PA did it and it makes our team maybe better now, but getting rid of two very high picks (arguably a top-10 and late 1st in any other draft) is the reason we're in this mess - a quick-fire way to fix the team in the short-term but hurts us in the long-term.

 

The reason Yzerman did the trade is that it makes them better in the future and you can see that's what a clever savvy GM is building towards. He's looking at the slow-burner way to build a chronically successful team, we're trying to patch up our current core to go for it now but it's not a consistent way to build a winner.

 

Sometimes doing less is more and I wonder, if we'd never made the OEL or Hronek deal how this team would have looked, let alone the Dickinson swaps where we lost picks too. A lot less cap hits, a lot more draft picks. I know we had positional needs but most teams just sit on their team, maybe fill them with free agents here and there, and use those picks wisely to build a team from within with quality and quantity.

You and @ronthecivil are some of the most pessimistic fans around. 

 

You are also foolishly optimistic about draft picks. 

 

No, teams don't just sit and draft forever. Colorado was built through trades. Vegas was built through the expansion draft and then trades, trades, a free agent signing, and more trades. 

 

Also 2nd round pick this year is a 2nd round pick in another year. 2023 draft is deep at the very top (top 4-5 players), it's not that the 40th overall is worth more then a 40th overall in another year. 

[Maddogy]

This team won’t win the Cup. Just enjoy the small wins. Set low expectations and enjoy the ride. 

[NewbieCanuckFan]

On 6/8/2023 at 9:38 PM, Nucks89 said:

How long do you think it will take until we are competing with Colorado and Vegas for supremecy in the west?

 

We still have an elite goalie, Centre, and D. Depth isn't greatest. But it can be worked on. 

 

Vegas has decisions to make in net. Avs are in a cap crunch and injuries are taking a toll.

heh, those are the hardest positions to work on from a position of weakness.  Vegas proved you don't need elite goaltending to win the Cup.  This isn't to say their goaltending was weak (it clearly wasn't).

[ronthecivil]

7 hours ago, VancouverHabitant said:

You and @ronthecivil are some of the most pessimistic fans around. 

 

You are also foolishly optimistic about draft picks. 

 

No, teams don't just sit and draft forever. Colorado was built through trades. Vegas was built through the expansion draft and then trades, trades, a free agent signing, and more trades. 

 

Also 2nd round pick this year is a 2nd round pick in another year. 2023 draft is deep at the very top (top 4-5 players), it's not that the 40th overall is worth more then a 40th overall in another year. 

Vegas played money puck from day one. They are close to 4 million under the cap right now. They invested heavily in scouting so that their moves were all good.

 

Our track record, not so much.

 

I am pessimistic because I see the same solutions to the same problems occurring again and again. I saw a deep Vegas team win the cup. I see our very shallow team fail. I don't see an easy solution for the Canucks, I only see hard ones. I see a Vegas team with cap space next season. I see a team that has to get worse just to meet the cap in Vancouver.

 

I am not THAT optimistic about draft picks. I just think you need lots of spins of the wheel. And some of them just end up being third liners and such. But they are on cheap contracts, and if you have a lot of picks and lots of development, you have lots of them.

 

The widely acknowledged lack of a 3C and a steep drop off in defense depth is agreed. But how do you fix it? With a trade? We have no cap space! Do we trade even more future picks to sweeten a deal? If it was that easy, they would have done it already.

 

Our best players were acquired through the draft. But hey, let's just try to accelerate the process, and make sure we get into the playoffs ASAP. After all, anything can happen! Heck, Florida squeaked in, and made it to the final. And they just got smacked by a good team with depth. Just like every other cinderalla team that makes the final. It's always a one sided affair once they get tot the final.

 

Drafting and development MIGHT be a way to get there. It's not a guarantee, I am not foolishly optimistic. It simply has some HOPE to it.

 

Our current rush the process plans HAS NO HOPE.

 

I would prefer to see some draft picks so that there's SOME hope.

 

I am not foolishly optimistic lol. People hoping for a miracle trade on the other hand.....

[DrJockitch]

Man this is silly it is not drafting and developing or acquiring through trades or UFAs it is all of the above with a ruthless approach to cap management and player acquisition. 
 

The reasons teams tank is they build up a bunch of pics over a few years so they are not only picking high but often. They are doing the best statistically that you can to acquire useful assets. As that group starts to come together and you see the assets you have you then also have cap flexibility and a lot of young assets and pics so that you can make moves to complement the core players you have now drafted or to move if star players become available. 
So you have a large cohort at similar age coming together and when you have had a chance to evaluate them further and watch their progression you can actually complement the players you have through trades and UFAs because you have cap room and assets. 
The other option is to skip the building a cohort, trickle in a young player every couple years before they are likely ready because you have so few assets, spend your assets on freeing up cap space and filling holes the most expensive way possible.  

[bishopshodan]

What if we never win?

 

That might be our destiny. That team. The one that never won the cup.

 

I'm not even trying to be negative. Just pointing out that it is a possibility,. 

[Alflives]

9 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

Man this is silly it is not drafting and developing or acquiring through trades or UFAs it is all of the above with a ruthless approach to cap management and player acquisition. 
 

The reasons teams tank is they build up a bunch of pics over a few years so they are not only picking high but often. They are doing the best statistically that you can to acquire useful assets. As that group starts to come together and you see the assets you have you then also have cap flexibility and a lot of young assets and pics so that you can make moves to complement the core players you have now drafted or to move if star players become available. 
So you have a large cohort at similar age coming together and when you have had a chance to evaluate them further and watch their progression you can actually complement the players you have through trades and UFAs because you have cap room and assets. 
The other option is to skip the building a cohort, trickle in a young player every couple years before they are likely ready because you have so few assets, spend your assets on freeing up cap space and filling holes the most expensive way possible.  

Yes, that’s a deep diving rebuild. It’s what Gillis got fired for suggesting should be done. Then we had the 8 Benning years. We got the most of our core during those years and then added Hronek by moving Bo. But Benning used his young assets and picks to try and speed up the process. New management used Bo to get Hronek. That’s a winning move because we used Bo (an extra piece) to get a key core piece. Benning used our own first to get Miller. Yes Miller is a key core piece, but using our own first wasn’t the right move at that time. But it still worked out okay because Miller is great. 
Now our new management is continuing to retool the supporting cast. But we have the core now. Our pick at 11OA might get us a prospect who (in a couple years) allows us to trade one of our current core for at that time for improvement in another area. Like how Petey is great and Miller is great which made Bo expendable. 

[grandmaster]

26 minutes ago, bishopshodan said:

What if we never win?

 

That might be our destiny. That team. The one that never won the cup.

 

I'm not even trying to be negative. Just pointing out that it is a possibility,. 

Hang in there buddy. We will win. AI predicted that. Year 2028. Mark it in your calendars 

Edited June 14, 2023 by grandmaster