Benning's Window of Opportunity

[Jetliner]

first off i would like to commend myself for reading OP's entire post. good job myself

 

I think our WO starts in 2-3 years, when EP, Boeser, hughes solidify themselves as elite players in our team. By then, our overpaid 3rd and 4th liner contracts will expire (ie. beagle, sutter) and we can look to complement our core with similar players but at a lower cost. I believe players like Motte would take up a significant 3rd line shut down role. we also need our defense not to suck, obviously. benning has done his part in bringing in the personnel. lets see if the d core can gel and play a solid defensive game. 

 

 

[kanucks25]

2 hours ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

I think it is fair to say that Baertschi has made an impact. So in a way that is a 2nd rounder that has made an impact, via trade. I'll also throw in Tryamkin, albeit for only 1 year..... so far. The later round picks typically take longer to develop so we won't see those guys for a few years after they are drafted.

 

Hopefully Gaudette can add to that list either this year. Honorable mention to Hutton.

Baertschi did produce like a high-end 3rd liner for relatively cheap (0.9M, 1.85M, 1.85M). So I'll grant you that, even though it's not exactly the same.

 

Tryamkim played like a bottom-pairing D-man and like you said, just for one year, so it's hard to call that an "impact".

 

Hutton wasn't even a Benning draft pick.

 

Gaudette would be the guy, though. If he could play like a legit 3C this year that would be a big bonus for us, and the first legit non-1st rounder Benning draft pick to make an impact.

[Cup2022]

6 hours ago, JamesB said:

This is the second time I have started a thread with "Window of Opportunity" in the title. The last time was, I think, back in 2010 after the 2009-10 season when there was a lot of media speculation about the Canucks window of opportunity. There has not been much reason to think seriously about a Window of Opportunity in recent years. But maybe things have changed.

 

At any given time there are maybe 5 or 6 teams in a window opportunity (WO). I would say that any team in the top 4 or 5 in the regular season plus any other teams that make it to the SCF are in a window of opportunity. But the precise definition does not matter. The question is, when will the Canucks have another legitimate shot at a Cup?

 

History.

Back in 2010 a lot people thought the Canucks were in a WO and were speculating about when the team would peak -- reaching their best chance to win the Cup, and about how long the WO would last.

 

There were of course some CDC optimists who refused to think about possible decline. I think the most popular comment in the thread was something to the effect that "We don't need to worry about any f***ing windows. We going to kick down the f***ng door."

 

But more realistic assessments look at how old the team's elite players are, how old the other core players are, the Cap situation, and a team's young players and prospects.

I think the media consensus was about right in 2010. The Canucks were 5th in the league in 2010, were the best regular season team in 2011 when they went to the SCF, were the best regular season team again in 2012 (when the lost in the first playoff round to LA, who ultimately won the Cup), and were still good in 2013. That was pretty much it -- a solid 4-year WO that did everything but actually produce a Cup. After that, their elite players (the Sedins) were passed their prime. Same with other core players like Burrows, Hammer and Kesler, and Salo had retired, and the team had cap issues and a weak pipeline of prospects and young players. (Remember when Brendan Gaunce, the Canucks 2012 first round pick, was the top prospect in the system.)

 

The Linden Plan.

It has been well-known for a while that part of the conflict between Linden and Aquilini (FA) was over timing. I saw an offhand remark in a Ben Kuzma article recently that Linden wanted a 4-year plan -- 4 years until they could open another WO, as of last summer. I don't know if this is what Linden proposed but, Linden actually said this or not, it is a widely held view that is worth thinking about. The Canucks had some good pieces in place -- Horvat, Boeser, EP, Hughes, along some other good prospects. But, arguably, they needed a couple more high drafts of comparable quality along with a bunch more other picks that would hopefully yield a few good players. 

 

The Benning Plan

The Benning plan was to contend for the playoffs as soon as possible, bringing in UFAs to give the team a quick boost. This is allegedly what FA wanted. Last year's team showed some improvement but was still not very good. But Benning has gone "all-in" for 2019-20, bringing in expensive UFAs and trading away a future first round pick (which is very rare for a rebuilding team except as part of deal to bring in other good young players) -- 2 years earlier than what I have called the Linden plan.

 

Benning has been doing this to some extent all along, but this summer he went further.

 

Will the Benning Plan Produce a WO

 

Personally, I have always favored what I describe above as the Linden Plan -- go through an all-out rebuild and try to build a Cup contender, even if it takes a while.

The problem with the Benning plan is that it might get you to the playoffs but is less likely to build an actual Cup contender.

 

However, it is certainly possible that the Benning plan will open a new WO. That is what this threada is about -- not just about the playoffs, but about building an actual Cup contender.

 

Here are some considerations:

 

1. The big names Benning has brought in -- Myers, Miller, Benn, Pearson, Ferland -- not to mention Beagle, Sutter, Eriksson, and Roussel, are veterans. Realistically we cannot expect any of those guys to improve with age beyond what happens this year (2019-20). So if the Canucks don't open a WO this year, those guys will, in a sense, have peaked too early and, as time goes on, will be less valuable and will take up a lot of cap room.

 

2. The Canucks had "loads of cap room". Now, looking ahead two years, they are going to have cap problems when EP and Hughes need to be resigned.

 

3. There are still some hopeful signs in the pipeline. Juolevi could still turn out be good. Woo could be very good. Tryamkin might come back in  2020-21, Podkolzin (who should join the team in 2020-21) looks very good and there are bunch of other prospects who have some chance of developing into helpful NHL players.

 

4. And the biggest question is: what is the ceiling for EP, Boeser, and Hughes? Will they be like the Sedins and just keep getting better, carrying the team along with them. Or will they plateau as good core players but not reaching the elite status needed to create a Cup contender.

 

My personal view is that this team is likely to peak in 2020-21. Guys like Horvat and Boeser should be in their peak and EP will be close and I expect Hughes to be an "early bloomer". The UFAs and Miller should still be pretty good. Tryamkin and Podkolzin should help the team and it will be before the EP/Hughes cap crunch. That is one year earlier than under the Linden plan.

 

Anyway, I would appreciate any comments.

 

What cap issues we have over 20mil avail next year and don't have to sign EP or Hughes over 40mil the year after when we do need to sign them best case they show they are worth 20 of that combined

Edited July 15, 2019 by Cup2022
Meant to say after this coming season

[Westcoasting]

I think the Canucks have to have a decent year and make the playoffs otherwise i fear Benning's window might be over and someone's new window is in place.

[stawns]

1 hour ago, Smashian Kassian said:

I think the timing you gave in the "Linden plan" is about when our window will open. To me its minimum 3 years, I voted for the last option.

 

I'd like to think 2-3 years b/c we have the pieces, but realistically our young core hasn't sniffed playoffs yet, let alone gone through some ups & downs in the post season.

 

I think we are close to the playoffs, but being a true contender I don't quite see it on the horizon yet. I know we're going for it now, but still keep drafting & developing. Even add picks where we can, because we'll need some guys drafted outside 1st Rd to hit. 

 

You look at recent SC winners & when they're core players were drafted, compared to when the team finally wins:

 

STL: Pietrangelo (2008), ROR (2009), Schenn (2009), Taranseko (2010), Schwartz (2010), Binnington (2011), Edmunson (2011), Parayko (2012), exc.

 

WSH: Ovechin (2004), Oshie (2005), Backstrom (2006), Carlson (2008), Holtby (2008), Kuznetsov (2010), Wilson (2012), Niskanen (2005), exc.

 

PIT: Fluery (2003), Malkin (2004), Sid (2005), Letang (2005), Hornqvist (2005), Daley (2005), Kessel (2006), Bonino (2007), Murray (2012), Maatta (2012), Guentzel (2013), exc.

 

Even our 2011 team: Luongo (97), Twins (99), Kesler (03), Bieksa (01), Hamhuis (01), Ehrhoff (01), Edler (04), Hansen (04), Higgins (02), Malhotra (98), Salo (96), Raymond (05), Torres (00), exc.

 

Just need to keep building. Our young core getting playoff experience will be the first step, then supplementing those guys as they grow from there will be the 2nd step. 

I agree, completely.  What I really like about the moves he's made in the last year is that we finally get to see the vision of what kind of team (and org) he's been building toward.  He drafted a skilled, diverse core and now he's filled in almost all of the gaps.  If Try comes back next season, the lineup will mostly be set for multiple playoff runs.  There'll some tinkering, but his core team are the guys he thinks can win a cup.

 

Ferland Petey Boes

-------------  Bo Miller

--------- Sutter/AG  Virt

Rousell Beagle ----------

Motte

 

Hughes Myers

Edler Stetcher

Juolevi Try

-----------

 

Marky

Demko

 

This seems like the core of the team.  Can anyone see this group hoisting the Cup?  I can.

[Crabcakes]

2 hours ago, Rob_Zepp said:

When people make comparisons with teams that were gifted 1st and 3rd overall picks and then use that as a comparison with a team that has not drafted in those positions for decades - well, it is apples and oranges.   Sure there are great players in each draft but there is something special typically about the first couple and teams that get one of those every ten years are lucky - to get two that close is insanely lucky.    Only Edmonton has managed to take such luck and seemingly get worse.

You are missing my point Rob.  This was the timing of when the Hawks core was drafted and when they were able to challenge for the cup.  

 

The Hawks were able to challenge 3/4 years after drafting their most important players.  How?  We know their core was Keith (2002), Seabrook (2003), Toews (2006) and Kane (2007) and the most important were Toews and Kane and once the core was together, it took 3 years to win the cup.  Some include Crawford (2003) but I consider him less important.  They missed the playoffs in 08, went to the conference finals in 09 and won the cup in 10.  It was a rapid improvement.  This is one way to build a team.  There was some very good drafting form 2002 on but there were also aggressive trades.

 

I'm suggesting that this is Benning's method.  I'm not saying that the path will be identical.  It all depends on opportunity and many other things.  It is certainly a school of thought on how to build teams.  The Rangers are going very fast as well and it can clearly be successful.

 

So, the Canucks drafted Horvat (2013), Boeser (2015), Pettersson (2017) and Hughes (2018) and in 2019 Benning has been working hard to bring in a supporting cast for these players.  How does it go from here?  Nobody knows.  We will see.  We don't know how good these players will turn out just as we didn't know how Toews and Kane would turn out in 2008 when they missed the playoffs.

[combover]

Benning so team might be a fringe wild card team and really that seems like his goal since he got here but don’t see this group as a cup contender. 

Just to be a playoff team everything has to go right, markstrom can’t go back to being just  average.  The d has to stay healthy As does the top 6.  If even one of those things is out then so is this team. 

[the grinder]

4 hours ago, Crabcakes said:

Was going to post something similar myself.  The twins were quite old when the finally got their shot at the cup.  Too old to pull off a successful retool in order to take a 2nd run.

 

Let's look at the Black Hawks.

 

2006........draft Toews

2007........draft Kane

 

2010.......won Stanley Cup   (Toews 22, Kane 21)

 

retool

 

2013........won Stanley Cup (Toews 25, Kane 24)

 

retool

 

2015.......won Stanley Cup (Toews 27, Kane 26)

 

I don't think that what the Hawks did is always possible but if a team is competing for the cup when the core is young, there may be more than one window.  

 

Keep in mind, Keith was drafted in 2002 and Seabrook and Crawford were drafted in 2003

yep   2 to 3 years we will making waves in the playoffs  once pod and tree come back from Russia , add some drafted and developed  talent on elc  , but first lets make the playoffs before we plan the parade 

[khay]

The NHL as is now and the way the West is with no team that is definitively better (like Chicago and LA from 2010-2015), if you can make the playoffs, you have a chance to win. I'd say if we make the playoffs this season, our window of opportunity starts because the team is only going to get better as Hughes, EP, Juolevi, Podkolzin, and other prospects blossom. And as long as they maintain a healthy cap structure (opposite of Toronto's cap hell), we should be able to keep the WO open for a long time because the players are so young.

 

 

[IBatch]

Hard to say really.  I would have answered somewhere between the third and fourth choices. TB and WNP had/have real windows now and not much happening (yet).   I’d say for sure each time any team makes the playoffs now anything can happen.  Teams are just that close in talent these days with the exception of a few, but things don’t always work out as planned.   

 

I do think this teams best chance will be in three years, once the cap is all available again and all our main guys are in their early to late primes.   Podz will inject something and some of our later picks will be taking over support roles which will free up cap to re-up Horvat etc.   A lot of this depends on who replaces Tanev and Edler, hopefully that’s OJ and Woo but we still might need to use free agency to do that which wouldn’t be ideal.   I’m happier then I thought I’d be with the next Canucks chapter, if I had to bet it would be on parts of this core and parts of the next that will have the best chance.

[NewbieCanuckFan]

Unfortunately this is an immediate results oriented business.  At some point, team has to move from potential to actuality.  Have to think we need to make the playoffs within the next two seasons,  I can’t think of too many NHL GMs that have continued to be employed by the same team as GM after missing the playoffs for six consecutive seasons.  

[JM_]

15 hours ago, kanucks25 said:

You realize that when those contracts come off the books, they need to be replaced, right? Your list has a 3rd line center, top-4 D-man, two middle-6 wingers and a bottom-pair D. They aren't free.

 

Pettersson, Boeser and Hughes alone could conceivably be making close to 30M combined in 2 years.

oh really we need to replace players? huh.

 

in 2 years Brock will be making 6-7, Petey likely in the 10-11 range if he continues the way he has been. If Hughes turns into a 12 million dollar player then great! 

[aGENT]

So many assumptions as facts....

[morgo]

We will win the Stanley Cup in 2021, you can write it down.

[alt kilgore]

A window is starting now no doubt. It wasn't planned well. For years window tradesmen advised preplanning, and gathering good materials and top line tools to do the job by industry standards. Linden Construction co. advised this strongly.

 

But for at least four years we have kind of ignored that advice insisting we could make a fine window sooner. Do it on the fly and chipped a hole in the wall with whatever tools we had gathered. Some old and rusty. Some very new but untested. Switching out one underperforming tool for another if we had to.

 

Every year at the end of winter, when all houses on the block show off what they've done, to let the Spring light in, ours always ended up looking too small, not squared up, rough around the edges, and ultimately had to resign to the fact it wasn't good enough and would have to start over for the next season.

 

Suddenly some things went our way despite our overachieving ambition. While our tools were overall mediocre and over priced, we were given a few newly minted prototypes of very well made construction tools to help us with the job. That was great! Yet still advisers were warning we should wait for even more help of that calibre before we try again.

 

But the screaming kids and family were done waiting all cooped up for so many years without even a glimpse of the Golden Cup in the sky, so Benning the general contractor switched things up even more. Spent out his whole budget on the best tools he could afford and were available, even if not top line products. They'd help with not putting all the wear and tear on those new prototypes. We were going to try again for real this time the GC insisted.

 

I'm all in. No matter how we got here. Because I live in that house too. And dang it I want to reach out and touch that shiny Cup through our own window now too!

 

Go Canucks Go!

[Rob_Zepp]

11 hours ago, Crabcakes said:

You are missing my point Rob.  This was the timing of when the Hawks core was drafted and when they were able to challenge for the cup.  

 

The Hawks were able to challenge 3/4 years after drafting their most important players.  How?  We know their core was Keith (2002), Seabrook (2003), Toews (2006) and Kane (2007) and the most important were Toews and Kane and once the core was together, it took 3 years to win the cup.  Some include Crawford (2003) but I consider him less important.  They missed the playoffs in 08, went to the conference finals in 09 and won the cup in 10.  It was a rapid improvement.  This is one way to build a team.  There was some very good drafting form 2002 on but there were also aggressive trades.

 

I'm suggesting that this is Benning's method.  I'm not saying that the path will be identical.  It all depends on opportunity and many other things.  It is certainly a school of thought on how to build teams.  The Rangers are going very fast as well and it can clearly be successful.

 

So, the Canucks drafted Horvat (2013), Boeser (2015), Pettersson (2017) and Hughes (2018) and in 2019 Benning has been working hard to bring in a supporting cast for these players.  How does it go from here?  Nobody knows.  We will see.  We don't know how good these players will turn out just as we didn't know how Toews and Kane would turn out in 2008 when they missed the playoffs.

I wasn't picking on your thread/post - I agree with the concept.   It was more aimed at the other "draftists" that keep harping on builds like the Hawks that it is somehow the template.   There is NO magic template as each team has different draft lottery luck, different trade opportunities and different development success.   

[stawns]

42 minutes ago, kilgore said:

A window is starting now no doubt. It wasn't planned well. For years window tradesmen advised preplanning, and gathering good materials and top line tools to do the job by industry standards. Linden Construction co. advised this strongly.

 

But for at least four years we have kind of ignored that advice insisting we could make a fine window sooner. Do it on the fly and chipped a hole in the wall with whatever tools we had gathered. Some old and rusty. Some very new but untested. Switching out one underperforming tool for another if we had to.

 

Every year at the end of winter, when all houses on the block show off what they've done, to let the Spring light in, ours always ended up looking too small, not squared up, rough around the edges, and ultimately had to resign to the fact it wasn't good enough and would have to start over for the next season.

 

Suddenly some things went our way despite our overachieving ambition. While our tools were overall mediocre and over priced, we were given a few newly minted prototypes of very well made construction tools to help us with the job. That was great! Yet still advisers were warning we should wait for even more help of that calibre before we try again.

 

But the screaming kids and family were done waiting all cooped up for so many years without even a glimpse of the Golden Cup in the sky, so Benning the general contractor switched things up even more. Spent out his whole budget on the best tools he could afford and were available, even if not top line products. They'd help with not putting all the wear and tear on those new prototypes. We were going to try again for real this time the GC insisted.

 

I'm all in. No matter how we got here. Because I live in that house too. And dang it I want to reach out and touch that shiny Cup through our own window now too!

 

Go Canucks Go!

What?  I'd say the pre-planning is rock solid........some fans are just bitter because they refused to look for the forest through the trees while it was happening.  Those of us who looked at the bigger picture saw where it was going, so we're not surprised he pulled it off. 

[Crimson]

I bet my $50 at 44-1 so I'm hoping this is the year...

[Bubble Man]

Our star PMD and 1C are 19 and 20 years old. Give your heads a shake. People. This team is in the 2024-25 range and that’s still young. 

[oldnews]

22 hours ago, JamesB said:

 

The Linden Plan.

It has been well-known for a while that part of the conflict between Linden and Aquilini (FA) was over timing. I saw an offhand remark in a Ben Kuzma article recently that Linden

 

2. The Canucks had "loads of cap room". Now, looking ahead two years, they are going to have cap problems when EP and Hughes need to be resigned.